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ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT AND ORGANIZATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROCESSES

MATHEMATICAL ECONOMIC MODEL DESIGNATED FOR THE FORECASTING OF THE LOW-RISE CONSTRUCTIONMARKET DEVELOPMENT IN THE ROSTOV REGION

Vestnik MGSU 2/2013
  • Ivakin Evgeniy Konstantinovich - Rostov State University of Civil Engineering (RGSU) Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honoured Builder of the Russian Federation, Chair, Department of Marketing and Logistics; +7 (863) 20-19-045, Rostov State University of Civil Engineering (RGSU), 162 Sotsialisticheskaya St., Rostov-on-Don, 344022, Russian Federation; This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
  • Vagin Aleksandr Vladimirovich - Rostov State University of Civil Engineering (RGSU) +7 (863) 20-19-045, Rostov State University of Civil Engineering (RGSU), 162 Sotsialisticheskaya St., Rostov-on-Don, 344022, Russian Federation; This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Pages 189-196

An effective resolution of the housing problem may consist in development and implementation of low-rise housing projects. Intensive development of the low-rise construction sector in the Rostov region needs the balance of supply and demand factors to be implemented in the effective legislation applicable to this market.A balance of supply and demand factors is feasible if methods of forecasting of the future trends of the low-rise housing market are developed and implemented. The authors have chosen the approximation method in the mode of Microsoft Word 2010 options as the problem solving vehicle.By approximating the statistical series of the low-rise housing market trends for 2002-2010, the authors have built a graphic dependence describing the housing construction market development pattern. Thereafter, the authors have concluded that the economic and mathematical description of the market of low-rise housing in the Rostov region is preferable in the form of a model of linear or exponential approximation.Statistical processing was made using the method of distribution of factors in the form of a radar chart employed to generate a visual image of the distribution of factors and the impact of each factor on the growth of the market of private housing in the Rostov region.

DOI: 10.22227/1997-0935.2013.2.189-196

References
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  2. Ivakin E.K., Belevtsov S.P. Maloetazhnoe stroitel’stvo: development i logistika [Lowrise Construction: Development and Logistics]. Inzhenernyy vestnik Dona [News Bulletin of Engineering in the Don Region]. 2011, no. 4. Available at: ivdon.ru/magazine/archive/n4y2011/708/ Date of access: 15.12.2012.
  3. Berezin A.O., Ushanova N.A. Obshchie metodologicheskie printsipy prognozirovaniya funktsionirovaniya regional’noy zhilishchno-stroitel’noy sfery [General Methodological Principles of Projecting the Operation of the Regional Housing Construction Industry]. Problemy sovremennoy ekonomiki [Problems of the Present-day Economics]. 2010, no. 1(33). Available at: http://www.m-economy.ru/art.php?nArtId=3035.
  4. Akchurina I.G. Planirovanie i prognozirovanie zhilishchnogo stroitel’stva krupnogo goroda v sovremennykh usloviyakh: na primere g. Bratska [Planning and Projecting the Housing Construction in a Big City in the Present-day Environment Exemplified by Bratsk]. Nauchnaya biblioteka dissertatsiy i avtoreferatov disserCat [“disserCat”, an Academic Library of Dissertations and Author’s Theses]. Available at: http://www.dissercat.com/content/planirovanie-i-prognozirovanie-zhilishchnogo-stroitelstva-krupnogo-goroda-v-sovremennykhusl#ixzz2CIjIMjMj Date of access: 15.12.2012.
  5. Sternik G.M. Metodika srednesrochnogo prognozirovaniya razvitiya rynka zhil’ya goroda (regiona) [Methodology of Mid-term Projections of the Urban (Regional) Housing Market Development]. Imushchestvennye otnosheniya v Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Property Relations in the Russian Federation]. 2012, no. 8(131), pp. 1—14.
  6. Oblastnaya dolgosrochnaya tselevaya programma «Razvitie zhilishchnogo stroitel’stva v Rostovskoy oblasti na 2010—2015 gody» [Regional Long-term Target-oriented Programme for Development of Residential Housing in the Rostov Region for 2010—2015]. Ofitsial’nyy portal Pravitel’stva Rostovskoy oblasti [Official Website of the Government of Rostov Region]. 2012. Available at: http://www.donland.ru/Default.aspx?pageid=89691. Date of access: 15.12.2012.

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